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Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15


 
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1. Title Title of document Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Gerard Keogh; Trinity College Dublin
 
3. Subject Discipline(s)
 
3. Subject Keyword(s) migration; asylum seekers; European Union
 
4. Description Abstract We model the relationship between asylum applications across the EU-15 and three key pull-force factors, GDP, the recognition rate (grants of refugee status as a percentage of all refugee decisions) and refugee stocks. A Dynamic Coefficient Random Effects Panel model is employed which captures both the country specific variance and temporal features. This model provides deeper insight into the relationship than has hitherto been possible. We show for Austria, Spain and possibly Belgium that the three predictive factors dominate while for other countries in the EU-15 country specific factors are more important. In relation to temporal effects we show both GDP and the recognition rate at the overall EU-15 level remain significant over time but refugee stock does not. We also show a downward level shift occurred in the elasticity of recognition rate in 2002 resulting in fewer refugees being recognised (i.e., granted refugee status) and, therefore, providing evidence that asylum policies have become more restrictive.
 
5. Publisher Organizing agency, location
 
6. Contributor Sponsor(s)
 
7. Date (YYYY-MM-DD) 2013-09-26
 
8. Type Status & genre Peer-reviewed Article
 
8. Type Type
 
9. Format File format PDF
 
10. Identifier Uniform Resource Identifier http://www.esr.ie/article/view/77
 
11. Source Title; vol., no. (year) The Economic and Social Review; Vol 44, No 3, Autumn (2013)
 
12. Language English=en en
 
13. Relation Supp. Files
 
14. Coverage Geo-spatial location, chronological period, research sample (gender, age, etc.)
 
15. Rights Copyright and permissions Copyright (c) 2015 The Economic and Social Review