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PKP Metadata Items |
Metadata for this Document |
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| 1. |
Title |
Title of document |
An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland |
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| 2. |
Creator |
Author's name, affiliation, country |
Andrew Hannon; irish Fiscal Advisory Council; Ireland |
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| 2. |
Creator |
Author's name, affiliation, country |
Eimear Leahy; Irish Fiscal Advisory Council |
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Creator |
Author's name, affiliation, country |
Róisín O'Sullivan; Smith College, Massachusetts and formerly Irish Fiscal Advisory Council; United States |
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| 3. |
Subject |
Discipline(s) |
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| 3. |
Subject |
Keyword(s) |
tax forecasting; Ireland |
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| 4. |
Description |
Abstract |
This paper examines the tax revenue forecasting performance of the Department of Finance over the period 1997-2014. While the general forecasting framework used reflects standard international practice, forecasting errors are relatively large by international standards. In almost all cases, we find no evidence of bias in the forecasts when considering the major tax heads over various forecast horizons. A decomposition of the forecast errors reveals substantial contributions from sources other than errors in forecasting the macroeconomic environment or in estimating the previous year’s revenue outturn. This suggests that a formal review of specific procedures and assumptions by the Department could yield further improvements in forecasting performance. An innovative exercise examining the routine use of judgement by the Department to adjust the outcome of forecasting equations indicates that this practice often improved the quality of the forecasts. |
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| 5. |
Publisher |
Organizing agency, location |
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Contributor |
Sponsor(s) |
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| 7. |
Date |
(YYYY-MM-DD) |
2016-09-26
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| 8. |
Type |
Status & genre |
Peer-reviewed Article |
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| 8. |
Type |
Type |
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| 9. |
Format |
File format |
PDF |
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| 10. |
Identifier |
Uniform Resource Identifier |
http://www.esr.ie/article/view/609 |
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| 11. |
Source |
Title; vol., no. (year) |
The Economic and Social Review; Vol 47, No 3, Autumn (2016) |
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| 12. |
Language |
English=en |
en |
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| 13. |
Relation |
Supp. Files |
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| 14. |
Coverage |
Geo-spatial location, chronological period, research sample (gender, age, etc.) |
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| 15. |
Rights |
Copyright and permissions |
Copyright (c) 2016 The Economic and Social Review
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